Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Wimbledon QF Preview: Top 4 Seeds Likely to Advance

We are now down to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, and the top four seeds are still going strong. In fact, according to my probability model, the chances of Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Wawrinka making the semifinals are very high. In my previous 4th round post, each of these players had at least 67% chance of making it to the final four. Now each player has at least a 78% chance.

With these results comes a few interesting observations:

Djokovic's Chances of Winning have Decreased: Before the start of Wimbledon, Djokovic had a 56% chance of winning - this has decreased to 52%. As my model accounts for each player's margin of victory, Djokovic's close five-set encounter against Kevin Anderson actually hurt his chances of winning the tournament.

Wawrinka's Title Prospect Continue to Rise: Before the tournament, my model predicted Stan the Man's winning odds to be at 6.2%. Now it has climbed to 9.1%, as he has breezed through the early rounds without dropping a set. We had predicted Wawrinka to have only a 66% chance of reaching the QF. Now that he has reached this stage, he will only become a more dangerous threat.

Federer is More Likely to Win Wimbledon Than Murray: I had argued this point in my previous post, but Federer's performance at Wimbledon have continued to put him in front of Murray (Bet365 apparently disagrees). Federer easily handled Bautista Agut on Monday, while Murray fought through a tough four-set encounter against big-serving Ivo Karlovic. Murray also has not beaten Federer or Djokovic since 2013.

Gasquet's Title Odds are Overrated (It's not 2%): Sure, he has one of the prettiest backhands in the world. Sure, he beat Dimitrov and Kyrgios (who was overrated anyway). But he has to beat Wawrinka, Djokovic and Federer along the way and these are clearly very tough hurdles to overcome.

To see how my model works, take a look at my original post on predicting the Wimbledon tournament. Any comments are welcome!

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