Monday, June 29, 2015

Update: Nadal's Odds after Ferrer's Withdrawal

Eighth-seed David Ferrer has withdrawn from Wimbledon due to an elbow injury. Ferrer's withdrawal thoroughly changes the game for those on the same side of the bracket - Nadal, who might have faced Ferrer in the quarterfinals, now has a much more open path. The highest seed he can possibly meet in the quarterfinals is now Fabio Fognini, ranked 30th. In fact, Nadal's chance of reaching the latter stages increaes significantly, according to our probability model:

That said, Nadal's chances of winning the tournament remains slim at 1.6%. To look at the odds of other contenders, check out our earlier post previewing the entire tournament.

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